Japan is preparing for the arrival of Hagibis in a worrying worry, with a typhoon that will hit the country on Saturday, accompanied by torrential rains, winds of more than 250 km / h and a swell. From 15 to 18 meters, there are still uncertainties about the precise trajectory and intensity of the typhoon when it will affect Japan, and in the worst case the situation could be catastrophic.
An impact near the capital Nippon
Still at the stage of a simple tropical storm last Sunday, Hagibis underwent an extremely rapid intensification within 24 hours. Fed by the warm waters of the western Pacific, it has reached an intensity equivalent to a Category 5 hurricane and has kept it since – with some fluctuations.
This Thursday, the average wind is worth more than 250 km / h and gusts sometimes exceed 315 km / h. The pressure in the center is very low. It displays 904 hectopascals at the last score. This is one of the most violent super-typhoons of the past 15 years. Also, its trajectory towards the most populated areas of Japan worries greatly. It should land at the island of Honshu where the capital Tokyo is located.
In these conditions, the socio-economic life of the country is significantly slowed down. In addition to the numerous preparations and safety instructions issued to the population, several events have already been canceled. This is the case, for example, with two matches of the Rugby World Cup – including France-England. The F1 Grand Prix should also be disrupted with a risk of postponement or cancellation of free practice sessions. A decision that will be officially announced at 5 am Friday morning – French time.
In addition, the typhoon will hit regions still marked by the passing of Faxai last month. Many roofs are simply covered with tarpaulins. In fact, people in these areas fear the worst for their homes.
Typhoon Hagibis: terrible weather conditions
The appraised forecasts of the Joint Typhoon Warning Center always report a landing on the aforementioned area. During this northward climb, colder waters and a drier environment will gradually weaken the whirlpool. Nevertheless, it will maintain an intensity equivalent to a category 2 or 3 hurricane when it reaches Japan. Average winds of between 120 and 200 km / h and gusts of between 180 and 250 km / h are expected – or more on exposed coastal areas or reliefs.
Hagibis will also be accompanied by a sea dismounted. A swell near 15 to 18 meters is expected near the point of impact. The lag of the phenomenon being important, it is a vast part of the coastline which will be affected by a risk of marine submersion. Also, a swell of 9 to 10 meters was frequently observed.
In addition, precipitation is expected to be intense. Cumulus clouds of between 300 and 400 millimeters will affect a large part of the country. For areas of exposed relief, peaks greater than 600 millimeters are likely. In fact, the risk of landslides and floods will be very high. The map above provides a summary of the expected totals between Thursday evening and Saturday evening.
Finally, there is still uncertainty as to the details of the trajectory and intensity of the typhoon (see Figure 1). The European model puts it clearly inland while the English and American models have the eye closer to the coast. It is not impossible that Tokyo is directly on the trajectory of the monster. If in the meantime the cyclone has not significantly weakened, the episode would be potentially catastrophic. A situation under very high surveillance.